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Using Expert Opinion to Quantify Uncertainty in and Cost of Using Nondestructive Evaluation on Bridge 时间:2017-07-25 14:26 来源:未知作者:admin 点击: 次 Abstract:A previous literature review indicated that there is little published experimental data that can be used to determine quantities such as bias, accuracy, reliability, and cost of common Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) methods as far as their use on bridges is concerned. This study attempts to quantify these parameters for common bridge NDE methods through a four-round Delphi method survey with experts in the NDE bridge field. The survey results indicate that most commonly used bridge NDE methods tend to be underbiased and relatively reliable. Furthermore, the accuracy of commonly used bridge NDE methods tends to be relatively variable with the average test measuring a true response between 80% and 85% of the time. In general, it was shown by the participant responses that the more expensive the method was, the better the bias, accuracy, and reliability the method had, and vice versa. The information presented in this paper can serve as a starting point for characterizing different NDE methods for use in bridge management and inspection planning and identifies the type of information that is still needed. As such, this research has the potential to promote further research on this subject.
1. Introduction
The poor condition of the US bridge inventory requires an enhanced approach to bridge management. Bridge inspection is a key part of the management process, which is somewhat overlooked when it comes to strategic planning and optimization. The National Bridge Inspection Standards (23 CFR 650C) require inspection of all bridges (with a length of 20 feet or more) on public roads every 24 months [1]. In 2009, a joint American Society of Civil Engineers Structural Engineering Institute (ASCE/SEI) and the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Ad Hoc group was created to study how current bridge inspection practices could be improved for the future [2]. The group recommended that “a more detailed inspection conducted less frequently may have a positive impact on the overall safety and maintenance of bridges in the U.S., allowing for broader application of Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) technologies and a better understanding of the condition of individual bridges” [2]. In order to move to a more realistic inspection model where the inspection of a given bridge is not necessarily conducted on a set 24-month cycle as suggested above, it is necessary to have a better understanding of the uncertainty in inspection results and an understanding of the costs of these more advanced NDE methods.
2. Problem Statement and Purpose
It was determined through an extensive literature review by Hesse [3] and Hesse et al. [4] that there is limited existing experimental work that can be used to quantify the level of bias, accuracy, reliability, and cost of common NDE methods as far as their use on bridges is concerned. The lack of such data is a significant obstacle to moving away from the set 24-month inspection cycle and to increasing the use of NDE more generally. The problem is that the experimental work necessary to find these values is difficult and would be extensive. Expert opinion could be used as a starting point, providing initial assessments of uncertainty that could then be updated based on agency specific findings that are collected as part of the normal inspection process rather than as separate experimental studies. This is similar to the approach of the element deterioration models in AASHTOWare Bridge Management Software (formerly known as PONTIS) that can be updated as outlined by Hatami and Morcous [5]. This paper describes a study to collect expert opinions on the uncertainty and costs of commonly used NDE methods. The information presented in this paper can serve as a starting point for characterizing different NDE methods for use in bridge management and inspection planning and identifies the type of information that is still needed. As such, this research has the potential to promote further research on this subject.