论文快速发表网

社科类论文科技类论文医学类论文管理类论文教育类论文农林类论文新闻类论文建筑类论文文艺类论文法学类论文

EI Compendex Source List（2022年1月） EI Compendex Source List（2020年1月） EI Compendex Source List（2019年5月） EI Compendex Source List（2018年9月） EI Compendex Source List（2018年5月） EI Compendex Source List（2018年1月）中国科学引文数据库来源期刊列 CSSCI(2017-2018)及扩展期刊目录 2017年4月7日EI检索目录（最新） 2017年3月EI检索目录最新公布北大中文核心期刊目录 SCI期刊（含影响因子）

本站服务项目浅谈青年教师如何开展教科研大学青年教师如何处理教学和科

论文范文

Assessing Swaziland’s Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Options 时间:2017-06-27 14:00 来源:未知作者:admin 点击: 次 Abstract:In 2011, Swaziland’s fiscal policy was extensively scrutinized following its worst fiscal crisis in decades. The impacts of fiscal adjustment on Swaziland’s growth, inflation, and sectoral allocations of resources were some of the issues analyzed. The fall in the Southern African Customs Union revenue receipts to levels below the trend line, for two consecutive years, and the fiscal challenges that followed were the main motivation behind this interest. This paper attempts to establish whether fiscal sustainability was threatened, and if so what were the policy options? Based on the results from econometric estimations, using a sample for the 1986 to 2012 period, I show that the country’s fiscal sustainability was not threatened. However, calculations of the tax gap and the primary gap covering the period 2000 to 2016 reveal that fiscal sustainability was threatened. Subject to the major drivers of government expenditure and revenue handles, it is concluded that, in the short run, the two needed to be realigned while also allocating more resources to support growth.
1. Introduction
The decline in Southern African Customs Union (SACU) receipts from E7.4 billion in 2014/15 to E6.9 billion for the 2015/16 fiscal year brings back memories of the 2010 to 2013 period. Indeed, the question that would be uppermost every analyst’s mind is whether the authorities are prepared to overcome similar challenges this time around if this trend persists for the next two years.
The frequency of fiscal deficits in Swaziland increased since 2000. In 2011, the risks associated with the country’s dependency on volatile SACU revenue inflows were exposed, as Swaziland faced its worst fiscal crisis. For over twenty years, the country has maintained a low debt-to-GDP ratio of about 20 percent and has had a clean record with international creditors. The sharp decline in SACU revenue inflows and limited expenditure adjustments, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, resulted in extreme fiscal stress. Swaziland’s failure to secure international funding to close the financing gap worsened the situation. Domestic payments arrears accumulated to more than 5 percent of GDP in 2011 as government failed to meet its obligations in a timely fashion. The fiscal deficit also rose to almost 13 percent of GDP in 2011/12.
Concerns on Swaziland’s ability to maintain fiscal sustainability in the short to medium term mounted, specifically due to the expected decline in future SACU revenue receipts. A number of factors accounted for such sentiments on transfers from the Common Revenue Pool (CRP)—deepening regional integration due to the coming into force of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) free-trade area (FTA), the discussions on the East and Southern Africa Grand FTA, and global economic developments—were all likely to result in lower revenue. In addition, although negotiations on a proposed revised revenue sharing formula stalled in 2011, any future efforts in this direction are expected to increase South Africa’s share in the CRP.1 Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland (BLNS) countries, therefore, needed to respond to the emerging realities to preserve fiscal and debt sustainability [1].
The fiscal crisis disrupted government programs for two consecutive years. It decimated private sector confidence and negatively impacted investment decisions. The government grappled with reduced financing possibilities, yet its financing requirements had increased. The higher interest costs arising from high borrowing requirements spilled over into the private sector. As the government resorted to domestic borrowing, lending rates increased, thereby crowding out the private sector. The increase in the borrowing costs, coupled with nonpayments to suppliers, further curtailed private sector activities. Given that the public sector contributes about 40 percent of GDP economic growth slowed even further. Consequently, the tax base shrunk and this risked widening of the fiscal deficit.